Close Oil Position. Still Short JPY

Close my Light Crude position at $67.92 for a quick profit.

Still shorting JPY. I think the yen has little upside risk. I might reduce my position if it moves to a level where risk/reward is too high…may be as low as 110 JPY/USD level.

Buy Oil and JAVA

Light Curde is down to $64.25 again. I’m going to buy a few contracts for hope that it may bounds back to $67 soon. Stop lost at $62.

Pickup a little more JAVA for 4 dollars and change.

Shorted yen too early

Strong yen just got stronger and I’m doubling up my bet and short more yen.

Yen is too strong

At 10:49PM EST, USD/JPY is trading at 96.19 and EUR/JPY at 123.16. Some say the strengthen Yen is due to carry trade unwind. Companies who borrowed yen to fund their business expansion now have to pay it back due to global economy slowing down. As yen appreciates, the cost of paying back borrowed yen goes up and slow down their payback schedule. I have no idea how much money is flowing back to yen and keep its demand high, but I do know this: when USD/JPY trade below 100, pressure mounts for for JCB to intervene. The JCB is more reluctant to intervene than it used to because of China. You can’t tell China to loosen its grip on the RMB while you actively manipulate your own currency.

I’m going to buy some USD/JPY at this level. I think carry trade unwind is overrated. Japan being an export driven economy must rely on strong export to pull them out of or keep them from falling into recession. Yen too strong is going to hurt Japan.

Best Everyday Camera?

I own a consumer digital SLR camera and a few lenses. I guess for some people that qualifies me as “expert”.

A friend asked me what camera to get for everyday use. Easy to carry, indoor performance, and great picture quality are the requirements. He couldn’t tell F-stop from bus stop, so Panasonic Lumix DMC-LX3 is the short answer. Head over to TWIP for a quick opinion from Scott Bourne or here for an in-depth review. Street price is around $420; not cheap for a 10 megapixel camera but you get what you pay for. Great picture quality at high ISO, fast F2.0 lens, and 24mm wide angle lens means you can capture good photos in situations other $200 cameras cannot. Did I mention it also does great video?

Bought some crude oil

Crude is at 67 and change. Maybe a bit over shot to the down side during New York section. Pack up a few Jan’09 futures contracts and hoping to make a few quick bucks.

Help the Poor?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7681435.stm

 

The article quotes a report saying in the nations surveyed, income of the richest 10% of people was, on average, nearly nine times that of the poorest 10%. In the US, the “rich” makes more than 15 times as much money as the poor. The income gap has widened over the years, so, in conclusion, the poor needs more help. There were no mentions of absolute income, living standard in any real terms. So if Peter is poor and made $10K 10 years ago, now he makes $30K. While Peter’s brother Richard made $100K 10 years ago, new he makes $400K. Richard made 10x what Peter made 10 years ago, now he makes 13.33x what Peter made. The article claims that it is not fair, because they want Peter to be making $40K if his brother is able to increase his earning by 400% to $400K. What kind of logic is that? If Richard makes $300K instead of $400, 6.667x poor/rich income ratio, will that make it fair?

One thing these kinds of reports never tell you is that the bottom 10% does not stay at the bottom for long, and the same goes to the top 10%. In the US at least, people in the bottom earning bracket are usually new immigrants came from poorer counties and being the poorest 10% in America is not much worst than where they came from. These new immigrants, however, move up the income scale quickly. In America, it is likely that poor Peter in our example move up the income scale quicker than his brother Richard and make $50K while his brother makes $200K, or 4 times more than Peter instead of 10 times 10 years ago. At the same time, some new immigrant makes $25K and another second generation immigrant increase his income from $100K to $600K, and the so call “income gap” widened as a result. If statistics track individuals and show majority of poor people stays poor, than we can conclude that the poor needs more help. The fact that average income of top 10% is n times greater than average income of bottom 10% tell us nothing useful.