Oil trading range still works. Is EUR heading up after the election?

Light curde is at $64.07 again. I’ll keep doing the same trade until it fails me: Buy at around $64, take profit above $67, stop lost $62.

The EUR/USD at 1.26 is interesting, but I’m not ready to trade this pair yet. I’m going to wait until after the election. With current information, my model gives upside of 1.4 downside 1.2, not good risk/reward. After the election, assuming Obama wins and he implements taxcut for the “poor” and put purssure on business to “create” domostic jobs. The downside could be much higher and make it a good trade to buy EUR short USD if EUR/USD stays at around 1.26. If you want to take some risk, buying EUR/USD now can be rewarding after the election.

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Close Oil Position. Still Short JPY

Close my Light Crude position at $67.92 for a quick profit.

Still shorting JPY. I think the yen has little upside risk. I might reduce my position if it moves to a level where risk/reward is too high…may be as low as 110 JPY/USD level.

Shorted yen too early

Strong yen just got stronger and I’m doubling up my bet and short more yen.

Yen is too strong

At 10:49PM EST, USD/JPY is trading at 96.19 and EUR/JPY at 123.16. Some say the strengthen Yen is due to carry trade unwind. Companies who borrowed yen to fund their business expansion now have to pay it back due to global economy slowing down. As yen appreciates, the cost of paying back borrowed yen goes up and slow down their payback schedule. I have no idea how much money is flowing back to yen and keep its demand high, but I do know this: when USD/JPY trade below 100, pressure mounts for for JCB to intervene. The JCB is more reluctant to intervene than it used to because of China. You can’t tell China to loosen its grip on the RMB while you actively manipulate your own currency.

I’m going to buy some USD/JPY at this level. I think carry trade unwind is overrated. Japan being an export driven economy must rely on strong export to pull them out of or keep them from falling into recession. Yen too strong is going to hurt Japan.