Stop Day Trading Oil

I’ve been day trading oil all week with tide stops and taking profits as little as $.50. This is hard work. I have to actually sit in front of the monitors all day to make very little money. As oil stabilized around $50 I think I can prepare to pick a direction and trade it long term. I’m in the camp of people who think oil is heading back to above $100. The questions is will we see $40 or even $30 before we see $100. Some big bets have been made on both directions. I’m going to deleverage a bit by closing some currency positions and prepare to buy oil contracts. Deleveraging gives me more headroom to absorb loss…lesson learned form the investment banks. I want to be fully prepared to take a big hit before oil bounce back. I usually like to buy in the up swing: buy high and sell higher. But this one is different, the bounce may be volatile and there are money to be made on both side of the V curve.

Light Crude Pop

China’s stimulus package has helped oil up to above $65. I didn’t get to buy more because I thought it may move lower before it moves higher. I started to pickup a few contracts here and there when light crude traded just above $60 last Wednesday hoping it may move lower before I jump in with a big position but it didn’t. $65 is a fair price in my model. I should take half of my profit now and let the other half ride and see how it goes today. If market condition doesn’t change and it moves above $67, I’m taking the other half of my profit and wait for a pull back.

Here we go again. Light crude below $64.

Light Crude is at $63.79, below $64 again. I’m going to wait a little bit to see if it goes down some more before putting on my trading range trade which has worked well for me so far.

Oil trading range still works. Is EUR heading up after the election?

Light curde is at $64.07 again. I’ll keep doing the same trade until it fails me: Buy at around $64, take profit above $67, stop lost $62.

The EUR/USD at 1.26 is interesting, but I’m not ready to trade this pair yet. I’m going to wait until after the election. With current information, my model gives upside of 1.4 downside 1.2, not good risk/reward. After the election, assuming Obama wins and he implements taxcut for the “poor” and put purssure on business to “create” domostic jobs. The downside could be much higher and make it a good trade to buy EUR short USD if EUR/USD stays at around 1.26. If you want to take some risk, buying EUR/USD now can be rewarding after the election.

Buy Oil and JAVA

Light Curde is down to $64.25 again. I’m going to buy a few contracts for hope that it may bounds back to $67 soon. Stop lost at $62.

Pickup a little more JAVA for 4 dollars and change.